VOLUME I · v4.0 · 2026

The SPX Premium Playbook

A systematic, data-driven approach to monthly income from selling SPX and single-stock options. Mechanical rules. No discretion. No bullshit.

13
Years Backtested
1,967
SPX Trades
92%
Win Rate
2.58
Profit Factor
Dr. Tim Hoffmann
+39.3%
Avg Annual Return
$2.75M
Cumulative P/L · 13 yrs
+86.2%
Best Year (2021)
13/14
Profitable Years

Thirteen years of selling premium. No clever tricks.

I started selling options in 2013. In the years since, I've watched countless retail traders blow up their accounts chasing setups they didn't understand, watched financial influencers sell expensive courses with no real track record, and watched institutional desks execute simple, mechanical strategies that consistently outperformed everything the retail world was chasing.

The strategy in this playbook is one of those institutional approaches. It's not new. It's not clever. It does not depend on predicting markets, timing entries with technical wizardry, or finding the next breakout. What it requires is discipline, capital, and the willingness to follow rules even when your gut tells you otherwise.

The gap between what works and what gets sold is enormous.

Every parameter has been backtested over 13 years and 1,967 individual SPX trades. Every rule has been tested in bull markets, bear markets, and volatility regimes from VIX 9 to VIX 80. There is nothing in this playbook that I am not actively running myself today.

I wrote this because of that gap. If reading this saves you from one of the courses I keep seeing advertised, I'll consider it worth the effort.

Dr. Tim Hoffmann
Systematic Options Trader

Two engines. Five parts. Eighty-five pages.

The Playbook is structured as two parallel income engines: an SPX core that runs on a fixed weekly schedule, and an optional single-stock module that adds diversified premium harvest on top. Five parts cover everything from the foundations to live operations.

PART I · 3 CHAPTERS

Foundations

What options actually are. Why selling premium has a documented edge. The Greeks that matter for systematic premium selling — explained without unnecessary jargon.

  • Options primer from zero to systematic seller
  • The volatility risk premium — and why it persists
  • Mean reversion and the structural edge
PART II · 3 CHAPTERS

The SPX Strategy

The core engine. Three weekly entries at delta 0.16, 45 DTE, with mechanical exits and a structural tail hedge. Every parameter justified by backtest data.

  • SPX core: entries, exits, and the no-stop-loss rule
  • The tail risk hedge — laddered structure that saved 2020
  • The VIX regime filter
PART III · 5 CHAPTERS

The Single-Stock Module

The diversification engine. RSI-based oversold setups within confirmed uptrends. Sector caps, earnings filters, and the screening discipline that separates clean entries from falling knives.

  • The three-filter setup: weekly, daily, 4-hour
  • VIX-adjusted thresholds and earnings filters
  • Live examples plus reject cases (CHTR, TSCO)
PART IV · 4 CHAPTERS

Backtest Evidence

The full 13-year backtest with methodology disclosed. Year-by-year P/L breakdown. The 2020 COVID stress test. Single-stock module results separately reported.

  • 1,967 SPX trades · January 2013 – April 2026
  • Year-by-year deep dive (best year +86.2%, worst −1.7%)
  • Single-stock module: 91.9% win rate, 2.37 PF
PART V · 6 CHAPTERS

Execution and Operations

The operational layer that turns rules into results. Weekly routines, pre-trade checklists, common mistakes, and a structured 90-day onboarding plan.

  • Daily and weekly routines (5–7 hrs/week total)
  • Pre-trade checklists for every trade type
  • Common mistakes and how to avoid them
CHAPTER 20 · TAX

Tax Considerations: U.S., Europe, Asia

The strategy is jurisdiction-agnostic. The tax treatment is not. Structured overview of major frameworks — U.S. Section 1256, German Termingeschäfte rules, UK CGT, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, and more.

  • U.S. 60/40 treatment for SPX vs. single-stocks
  • EU jurisdictions including Germany's €20k loss limit
  • Asian frameworks and substance requirements

13 years. 1,967 trades. The data is the data.

Strategy rules are only as credible as the evidence behind them. Here are the headline numbers from the full backtest — methodology fully documented in Part IV.

1,967
Total SPX Trades
92.0%
Win Rate
2.58
Profit Factor
+39.3%
Avg Annual Return
700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 +651% 2020 COVID +53.7% 2021: +86.2% Account Equity (% of $500k) Strategy Equity Curve · 2013–2026 · Constant $500k Capital Base 0% −10% −20% DD %
Equity curve on a constant $500k capital base. Maximum daily drawdown of −20% during COVID 2020 was fully recovered within the same year through hedge mechanics. Final cumulative P/L: +651% of starting capital ($2,751,500).

This is what a trade looks like.

One of the most recent SPX core entries: opened on April 20, closed by automated GTC ten days later at exactly 50% of credit captured. The kind of boring outcome the strategy is engineered to produce.

Closed Position
SPX Core Strategy

SPX 6650 PUT

S&P 500 Index · 1 contract · 46 DTE
+$2,587.56
+50.8% · 10 days
Open · Apr 20
Sell to Open
$50.90
+$5,088.78 credit
Close · Apr 30
Buy to Close (GTC)
$25.00
−$2,501.22 debit
Trade #4132

Be honest with yourself.

This is for you if...

  • You have a funded options-trading account with $250k+ available capital
  • You have access to Portfolio Margin (Schwab Level 4, IB PM, Tastytrade PM)
  • You want a mechanical system you can execute in 5–7 hours per week
  • You can follow rules even when your gut tells you otherwise
  • You are looking for monthly income, not a get-rich path
  • You understand that losing months happen and survival comes first

This is NOT for you if...

  • You are looking for fast returns or big leverage
  • You have no experience with options or the Greeks
  • You want to override rules based on news or "feel"
  • You have less than $250k of capital you can risk
  • You are looking for stock picks or directional trade calls
  • You expect to never have a losing trade or losing month

Three ways to start.

Get the playbook. Add the live trading group. Or just join the group to see how the strategy runs in real time before committing to the book.

Playbook
The complete strategy, in writing.
$979
One-time payment · Lifetime updates
  • The complete 85-page Playbook (PDF)
  • SPX core + tail hedge + VIX regime filter
  • Single-stock module with screening rules
  • Full 13-year backtest evidence
  • Operational checklists and routines
  • Tax considerations (U.S., Europe, Asia)
  • Lifetime updates to all future revisions
  • No live trading group
Buy the Playbook
Live Group Only
See the strategy run before committing.
$49
Per month · Cancel anytime
  • Daily entry posts in private Telegram channel
  • Every SPX core entry posted live
  • Single-stock entries with full reasoning
  • Friday hedge purchases logged
  • Weekly trade recaps
  • See exactly how the strategy operates
  • No Playbook PDF (book sold separately)
  • No backtest data, no methodology
Join the Group

All purchases include EU VAT where applicable. The Playbook is a digital download and all sales are final. The Live Group is a monthly subscription, cancel anytime.

Monthly notes from the desk.

Once a month, I send a short letter on what's working, what's not, what I'm watching in the volatility surface, and any updates to the playbook. No fluff. No upsells. Unsubscribe anytime.

Questions, answered.

How much capital do I need to run this strategy?

The Playbook is calibrated for accounts of $250,000 or more, with Portfolio Margin enabled. Below that threshold the per-contract margin requirements make the operational sizing impractical, and the hedge structure becomes inefficient at small scale.

Without Portfolio Margin (i.e., on a Reg-T account), you would need approximately 2.5× more capital to run the same contract sizing, so a $625k+ account becomes the practical floor.

Which broker do I need?

Any broker that offers Portfolio Margin and SPX index options will work. The Playbook references Schwab thinkorswim throughout because that is what I run, but Interactive Brokers (PM), Tastytrade (PM), and others work equivalently. The mechanics are identical across platforms; only the UI differs.

Is this real money or just a backtest?

I run this strategy with my own capital. The trade examples in the Playbook are real closed positions, with their actual fill prices and trade IDs. Live results since 2024 have closely tracked the backtest expectations within a 5–15% conservatism band.

The Live Group tier shows the strategy in real time — every entry, every exit, every hedge purchase as it happens.

What's the realistic monthly return?

On a $500,000 base running the SPX core + hedge, the 13-year average is approximately 39% per year — roughly 3% per month gross of taxes. Adding the single-stock module historically contributed an additional 5–10 percentage points per year in favorable regimes.

Individual months range widely. Some months produce 5%+, others produce zero or small negatives. The strategy is built around a steady annual return, not a steady monthly one. Anyone promising you steady monthly returns above 2% with no losing months is selling you something they do not actually trade.

Why no stop loss?

This is the most counter-intuitive rule in the entire strategy, and I dedicate a full chapter to explaining it. The short version: I tested every stop-loss level from 1× to 3× credit across the 13-year backtest, and in every case adding a stop loss reduced overall returns.

Naked puts are mean-reverting. When the underlying drops, the put price spikes — often dramatically. A stop loss exits at the spike, locking in the loss. Days later, the underlying recovers, and the put price collapses. The trade that hit the stop would have hit the take profit. The 21 DTE time exit provides time-based risk control without these premature exits.

Is this taxable as ordinary income?

It depends entirely on your jurisdiction, and tax treatment varies dramatically. The Playbook contains a full chapter (Chapter 20) covering U.S. Section 1256 treatment, German Termingeschäfte rules, UK CGT vs. trading income, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, and other major frameworks.

Get qualified local tax counsel before deploying capital. The strategy is jurisdiction-agnostic; the tax treatment is not.

How much time per week does this require?

SPX core only: approximately 3 hours per week. With the single-stock module added: 5–7 hours per week, depending on book size. Most of that time is the daily 10-minute entry workflow plus a one-hour Saturday review.

It is not a passive strategy, but it is far from a full-time commitment.

What is the refund policy?

The Playbook is a digital PDF and all sales are final. Once delivered, refunds are not available. This is standard practice for digital downloads.

The Live Group is a monthly subscription, so you can cancel anytime, no commitments. If you want to see the strategy in action before committing to the Playbook, the Live Group is the better starting point.

Will there be future updates?

Yes. Every Playbook purchase includes lifetime updates. As the strategy evolves and as I incorporate feedback, new revisions are released free of charge to all existing readers.

v1.0 was released in 2024. v2.0 added the early single-stock module. v3.0 refined the SPX core. v4.0 (current) brought back the single-stock module with tightened screening rules and added the multi-jurisdiction tax chapter.

Stop chasing trades. Start collecting premium.

Thirteen years of evidence. A complete operational manual. The same system I run with my own capital. Available now.

Get the Playbook · $979